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Milk alternatives on the rise
At least regionally, the tipping point has been reached. The other day in a Berlin co-working space: the barista leans over the counter and asks the customer with honest astonishment: "Why do you still use cow's milk in your cappuccino? But there are many alternatives: he alone offers a choice of almond, soy or pea drink. And in the supermarket two streets away, you have to search a long time for UHT milk, because it takes up the smallest space at the bottom of the overly colourful shelf of milk-like drinks.
Certainly: Berlin is not Höxter, Landsberg am Lech or Villingen-Schwennigen. But all too often what happens there soon happens here earlier. And anyway, Berlin is not San Francisco or London, and what has already happened there happens here later.
So what I'm saying is: the demand for drinks that can replace cow's milk is increasing. Worldwide and quite rapidly for some time now. The tipping point. Time to take a closer look at this beverage trend.
The market for beverages produced from plants records double-digit growth (Picture: Oatly)Facts and figures
To back up a local observation with our own figures: every tenth litre of "milk" consumed in Germany (on the complicated issue of the correct designation later) now comes from substitute products. In the organic sector, the share of drinks produced from plants is even significantly higher. And this market is growing steadily. Everywhere. The market research institute Innova observes that in 2018, 16.3 billion US dollars were turned over worldwide with plant milks.
In comparison: in 2010 it was still 7.4 billion. The sales markets are growing by around twelve percent per year. In a study, ING Bank looked at the market in the EU plus Great Britain and forecasts revenues of five billion euros in 2025. We are currently at around 3.4 billion.
This growth is at the expense of producers of conventional milk. A decline in turnover is measurable here. According to the statistics of the Federal Agency for Agriculture and Food, the per capita consumption of drinking milk (which includes whole milk, semi-skimmed and skimmed milk as well as other drinking milk including semi-skimmed milk) was 49.9 kg in 2020. Figures from the Dairy Industry Association from 2014, on the other hand, amount to 56.3 kg.
One in three occasionally reaches for milk from plants instead of cow's milk (Picture: Oatly)Who are the players?
This naturally attracts new and old players, large and small, and the field of plant-based beverage providers is growing steadily. Start-ups such as Berlin-based pea milk makers Vly are landing million-dollar investments (Rocket Internet has taken a stake for a seven-figure sum), and global corporations such as Danone are securing their future through strategic acquisitions such as those of the Alpro and Provamel brands, German market leaders in milk alternatives. In the Handelsblatt, Danone's German boss Richard Trechman said: "Every fifth Danone product in Germany will be plant-based by 2025." To this end, the plant in Ochsenfurt near Würzburg is being rebuilt.
Ehrmann, Müller Milch and Dr. Oetker are also currently testing vegan milk products such as semi-hard cheese or pudding. Rewe and Aldi have white-label products on their milk alternative shelves, and even the dairy Schwarzwaldmilch launched an organic oat drink called Velike with Black Forest Nature GmbH.
So the trend is clear: the relationship of customers to milk alternatives has changed permanently. In the past, a few opted for it because the original was not possible for them, mainly because of an allergy or intolerance. So the alternative was always just that: the solution to a problem, option B if A doesn't work.
And that is exactly what has changed now: The majority of today's customers buy the milk alternative with full intention. For them, that is exactly option A, that is what they want and choose, even if other products would be possible for them. They really want that!
What are the reasons?
And for different reasons. Number one, of course, is the general decision for a vegan lifestyle. Around 1.5 per cent of Germans now eat no animal products. But many, many more people - and there can be no fixed numbers here, it's the nature of the beast - are considered flexitarians, i.e. they go without more and more often and opt for the vegan option depending on the situation. Presumably 30 percent of Germans feel this way. 30 percent who sometimes choose plant-based milk instead of cow's milk.
Two factors are usually decisive here: on the one hand, awareness of animal welfare, sustainability and climate protection. Although studies come to different clear results and the devil is often in the detail (from which plant is the milk drink made - or even more precisely, how and where was this plant grown?), it can be said that the alternatives often have a better ecological balance than animal milk. The production of a litre of oat milk, for example, produces 80 percent less CO2. The alternative is also better in terms of energy and land consumption.
Secondly, many customers see benefits of the milk alternative in terms of their health. There are also studies that prove this (less fat, cholesterol and calories, no growth hormones, pesticides or antibiotics), as well as those that do not. There, reference is made above all to the important proteins, B vitamins and calcium in cow's milk.
Cereals and nuts offer themselves as alternatives to milk, although here one must look more closely at the sustainability of production (Picture: Maddi Brazzocco on Unsplash)What are the alternatives?
Oats: Next to soy, milk drinks made from oats occupy the largest space. They have a rather neutral taste and are well suited for processing, can be easily foamed or used in cooking and baking. The leader here is the Swedish company Oatly, which has been exclusively supplying more than 15,000 Starbucks shops in the USA with oat drinks since this year and is currently preparing its IPO. According to media reports, this involves a valuation of ten billion dollars.
Rice: Rice drinks are rather watery and pleasantly tasteless, but offer hardly any positive nutritional values. They lack proteins. And pure rice drinks are rather difficult to process, which is why combinations are often offered here (rice-oat drinks, rice-almond drinks).
Other grains: In addition, drinks made from spelt, quinoa, millet, buckwheat and amaranth can also be found, especially in organic food stores and health food shops - all with different distinct flavours.
Almond: Almond milk is close to oat milk in popularity. It often has a pleasant marzipan-like taste - but it has major shortcomings in terms of eco-balance. The cultivation of almonds requires an immense amount of water (even more so in increasingly water-scarce regions, 80 percent of the almonds processed worldwide come from California).
Other nuts: Drinks made from cashew, pistachios, coconut, hazelnut and macadamia are also joining more and more on the shelves, each with its advantages and disadvantages. Often they are simply quite expensive, sometimes not particularly sustainable (there are no European cashew and coconut productions, the transport routes are thus always long, etc.).
Lupine: The pulses have a high protein content - a big plus! They also have a lot of fibre and little fat. With regional cultivation with low water consumption, the alternative wins further points. The German supplier Prolupin with its Made with Luv brand offers yoghurt, ice cream and lupine drinks.
Pea: The pea solves the protein problem that often accompanies a vegan diet. The Berlin start-up Vly is a market pioneer here with different versions of its pea milk.
Soy: Soy drinks were the first milk alternatives on the German market, are still number one, but have lost some popularity as competition has increased. Here, their poor eco-balance is certainly an issue - although one would have to look closely here. Industrially cultivated soy certainly harms the climate, but regionally and organically produced soy tends not to.
We are still at the beginning in the development of milk alternatives (Picture: Oatly)How is it done?
The principles of producing milk alternatives are largely the same for all raw materials. Vegetable ingredients are mixed with water and ground wet. Afterwards, a centrifuge separates the liquid and plant fibres. Usually, vegetable oil is then added, heated and bottled.
How can it be traded?
The issue of declaring milk alternatives is a bit tricky. One thing is clear: according to an EU regulation, plant-based drinks may not be called milk. Milk is only what is of animal origin. Even references to it could soon be banned. The suffix "-drink" is therefore common. Oat drink, almond drink, soy drink.
What’s next?
You don't have to be a prophet to look this far ahead and see that plant-based milk alternatives have not yet reached the end of their development. Similar to the efforts to grow meat from animal muscle cells (keyword "cultured meat"), there are already companies that want to make milk and dairy products in this way. The US start-up Perfect Day, for example, already produces milk from yeast, bovine DNA and plant nutrients.
